Many business managers think that because the hype surrounding Bird Flu seems to have has eased, it means the threat no longer exists. Don’t let the lack of news have you drop your guard. An Avian Influenza pandemic remains a very real threat.
Despite an apparent ‘lull’ in activity (reported or otherwise) in recent months, pandemic influenza, in particular Bird Flu remains with WHO at Yellow Alert Status (3 of 6) meaning “No or very limited human-to-human transmission”.
There should be no disillusionment, at some point, be it in months or in a decade, after more ‘false starts’ and lulls, the virus will successfully mutate to an infectious type at a place and time when effective containment is not forthcoming. If the strain is infectious enough and there are enough transient people in the vicinity to harbour it, the ingredients will be present and a global pandemic event will take place.
Fortunately the worst case scenario is the least most likely to transpire. That is for the virus to mutate into a highly contagious strain, and for it to kill over 50% of people it infects (as is the case with the current bird-to-human only cases). The consequences of this would be catastrophic and the survivors would have to get used to a very different world. Ironically it is this doomsday approach which has prevented many businesses from taking any preventative steps whatsoever to prepare themselves. What would be the point?
In fact the most likely scenario is not doomsday at all, and there is definitely a point to preparing. The most likely scenario will be far less devastating.
Whilst it is true that virtually every person on the planet will at some point contract the pandemic flu, some 50% of those infected will not even know they have it, 40% will suffer from only mild discomfort (as with the ‘normal’ seasonal influenza), and only a small percentage of the rest who suffer severe discomfort will succumb to it, leading to perhaps at most a 1% to 2% fatality rate. This has been the case for previous pandemics in history such as the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. Additionally, the pandemic medical research and technology race-against-time we are witnessing may lessen those numbers still further.
Although a 1% to 2% fatality rate is still catastrophic, it will not fundamentally alter our society. In quantative terms, a company of 1000 people could expect to lose 10 to 20 staff over the 18 month duration of the pandemic, probably less of a loss in number terms than is the normal staff turnover rate. These relatively small numbers however disguise the crippling effects an outbreak would have on business, as plans must be in place to carry operations through weeks or months with a 50% or more personnel absenteeism rate, with even healthy staff off work due to fear, home quarantine and caring for others.
Based on pandemic events throughout history, most experts agree that the next pandemic will last approximately 18 months and come in three distinct waves. Human nature is such that at the commencement of the pandemic, and to a lesser extent on commencement of each subsequent wave, fear and panic will grip society with most isolating themselves and their families from close contact with other members of the public. This ‘over-reaction’ was evidenced in the cities affected by the SARS outbreak of 2003, with many travellers reporting prejudices against them worldwide if it was known they had been in an infected area. As tragic as it was only 895 people died from SARS, far less than most of the other scourges which plague our modern society, medical or otherwise.
With a global pandemic looming, even most governments’ initial reaction will be equally disproportionate with for example, whole floors of offices being ordered closed for controlled disinfection when only single (suspect) cases occur within them.
Within a relatively short period however the hype and fear will subside as the public becomes educated and the actual fatality rate of the virus strain becomes clear. Soon most will want to come out of isolation and try to resume a sense of normality in their lives. Governments would need to loosen controls as resources would not be able to cope for long if sustained at those initial levels. Businesses will be permitted to do their own clean up and people would become (cautiously) accustomed to living in a pandemic, despite high levels of sickness around them and the regulatory controls which will be in place.
The obvious picture which emerges from this is that provided a business can educate its staff on what to expect, how to protect themselves, and satisfy them that it has taken appropriate measures to protect them and their families, those staff are far more likely to return to the workplace quickly. The reality is that an office or any other enclosed working environment can and should be made into the safest place for staff to be outside of the home.
If the methods used to do this are communicated to staff ahead of time, the business will continue to operate when others around them fall over.
In conclusion, businesses which still take the pandemic threat seriously and allocate funds and resources into preventative measures will survive or even thrive during and following a global pandemic. A company needs to win the main board support it needs to do just this, and show it’s shareholders, staff, clients, suppliers and the public at large its commitment to its operational continuity.
Nigel Thomas is a veteran business continuity professional. He is also the operator of Bird Flu Manual Online, a reference and resource mine designed to help you get your business prepared for Bird Flu. Use the WHO’s Pandemic activation phases and what non-perishable supplies are best to stockpile. No login required.
Bird Flu Preparedness For Businesses 
Nigel,
Saw your post on Effect Measure nd just read the above article. I have been researching H5N1 since the beginning and helping my local community in Sydney prepare for a panflu event.
From my investigations, I do not see the same reasons for your optimism that H5N1 will moderate to a CFR of 1-2%. The arguement from history is meaningless, as has been discussed by many virologists. Just because there has not been a widely recognised pandemic with CFR above 2.5%, does not mean it cannot happen. The WHO panel of virologists state this position in their 2007 paper.
New things happen all the time, and nobody I am aware of has made the case scientifically for H5N1 CFR dropping from say 50% (or over *0% in the case of Indonesia) down to 1 or 2 % very convincingly, in my opinion. We just don’t know anywhere near enough about pandemic development/viral evolution to make such claims.
The point being that I think you do a disservice to those engaged in planning/training by putting an overly optimistic CFR position. The qualitative aspects of pandemic planning dependant on severity, such as mortuary services, food supply and distribution etc. will be caught flatfooted if we don’t consider the true worst case scenarios seriously, and plan accordingly. I believe you will find that the military are considering severe CFR scenarios (ie CFR of 10% and above) in their planning, and we woud be wise to do the same in the community mitigation and corporate planning as well.
It becomes starkly obvious that at high CFR’s, the prime objective is to prevent infection in the first place at ALL costs.
For a period of time, it will not be business as usual, and planning that is based upon that asumption will prove disasterous in the event of a high CFR event.
Rob,
Thank you so much for posting on my Bird Flu Preparedness blog.
Yes, I have seen the arguments on all sides myself, and perhaps I am being overly optimistic. Having been involved in business continuity myself for over 20 years I understand fully the need to plan and prepare for a worse-case scenarios.
Having said that, unfortunately it is those very same expectations (of CFR’s being 50% or more) which are keeping many businesses from making any preparations at all. The response I get from potential clients who haven’t made preparations is that there is no point to prepare against something which will be so devastating. “It’ll be the end of life as we know it, so what’s the point?”.
If the CFR’s are that high then it will be ‘the end of life as we know it’ and they would be right. But if (regardless of the chances) the CFR’s are like previous pandemics then there really is a point to preparing, and the businesses which haven’t will not be able to prepare retro-actively.
This is made worse by the media of course which loves to propogate the more (headline grabbing) exaggerated claims than the moderate ones. They are unwittingly stopping preparations from getting underway.
Of course I hope I am right and those which expect the worse-case scenario are wrong. I’m sure we all do!
One other point you made that I’d like to comment on is that we must prevent infection at all costs. I agree, however we must also accept the reality that there will be no escaping exposure to the virus, by anyone – except perhaps those who remain in total isolation throughout.
Preventing infection will help by moderating any spiking in the outbreak, spiking which will bring health and regulatory services to a grinding halt. Preventing infection will not reduce infection rates, it will simply spread the load over time. This is not a bad thing as firstly health and regulatory services have a better chance of coping, and secondly, we may come up with a vaccine in time to protect those who manage to escape exposure when the virus first breaks out.
I guess there’s no way of knowing for sure until it happens.
Nigel Thomas
For free references and tools go to Bird Flu Manual Online or, if you need more comprehensive tutorials and templates, consider Bird Flu D-I-Y eManual for business preparedness and survival.